Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS62 KMHX 150305
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1005 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and developing low pressure will track across the
area tonight, with the low strengthening rapidly just off the
coast early Friday bringing strong winds, significant coastal
impacts and locally heavy rain. A ridge of high pressure will
then build into the Carolinas this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Thu...Surface low continues to slowly deepen as it
migrates along a warm front continuing to hug the immediate
coast. Band of enhanced precipitation continues to push across
the coastal plain ahead of an inverted trough, but main focus is
on a small but impressive cluster of enhanced reflectivity along
coastal Onslow County riding the aforementioned front. RAP
MUCAPE values are as high as 500 J/kg in this area, and with 0-1
km SRHs near 100 m2/s2 a brief uptick in tornado potential is
being watched along the Highway 24 corridor for the next hour or
so.

Other change to the forecast tonight was to bump up near term
temperatures, as low clouds and precipitation have kept the
diurnal curve relatively flat. Otherwise, remainder of the
public forecast remains in good shape.

Prev disc...Aloft, a negatively tilted mid level shortwave will
continue to move through the Carolinas, cutting off an upper
low across eastern NC late tonight into Friday. This will result
in cyclogenesis over eastern NC late tonight with a rapidly
deepening surface low across coastal NC early Friday, moving off
the coast by Fri afternoon.

Heavier rain axis is now shifting across the coastal plain this
evening and will continue to steadily march eastward through the
near term. Due to the prolonged dry spell, the area can handle
a decent amount of rainfall, however some of the models are
indicating local rainfall amounts of 3+" which would result in
local urban and poor drainage flood problems. Area most at risk
would be locations near the Albemarle Sound and the Outer Banks,
which we will continue to watch for potential for localized
flooding. Towards dawn Friday as the low continues to intensify
and move along the coast, strong northerly winds will develop on
the backside of the low, strongest along the immediate coast.
High Wind Warnings continue for the Outer Banks for wind gusts
in excess of 60 mph...and Wind Adv continue for Dare, Tyrell,
Hyde, and eastern Carteret counties for wind gusts of 50-55 mph.
The strong winds will result in coastal flooding issues,
especially on Friday. Please see the coastal flood section below
for additional details. CF Warnings and Advisories continue.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s well inland to the
upper 50s beaches. May see lows around midnight, then slowly
increasing especially along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thu...Highly impactful low pressure system will
impact the area Friday, rapidly deepening as it moves off the
Outer Banks...bringing strong winds, significant coastal impacts
and locally heavy rain to eastern NC. The low is forecast to
deepen at least 1mb/hour, and would classify as bombogenesis if
the time duration was longer, but for all intents and purposes,
will be. Of most concern is the dynamic nature of this low,
which has the potential to bring even stronger winds than
currently forecasted with mesoscale details difficult to resolve
even with CAMs. At this time have strongly worded high wind
warnings, though wouldn`t be surprised to see a small area of
hurricane force wind gusts somewhere on the OBX if sting jet
develops on backside of the mesolow. High Wind Warnings continue
for the Outer Banks with gusts up to 60 mph, with Wind
Advisories for counties adj to the sounds gusting 45-55 mph.

The low traversing through the heart of the OBX and rapid
deepening will lead to potentially dangerous and life
threatening rapid water level rises (See Coastal Flood Section
below for more details).

This system will also bring a beneficial rainfall to the
region, with most locations picking up at least 1-1.5 inches of
rain through mid day Friday (most falling Thu night and early
Fri). Higher totals are expected farther east where 2-4 inches
of rain are possible (highest near the Albemarle Sound and the
OBX). With intense lift and upright UVV developing, per model
x-section analysis, some places may see isolated rainfall
amounts of 3-5 inches, which would lead to localized flooding
issues if realized. Best chance for these amounts acrs the
northeast zones.

Winds slowly wind down later Friday afternoon and into the
evening with rain ending during the afternoon hours. Temps cool
with the rain/clouds/gusty nrly winds, with highs mainly in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thu...High pressure builds in for the weekend to
early next week bringing seasonable temperatures and dry weather
to the region.

Saturday through Monday...Another ridge of high pressure then
begins to build in from the west this weekend into early next
week with dry weather expected. Temps will be near climo through
this period with highs in the 65-70 degree range and lows in
the lower 40s for most.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The ridge of high pres amplifies and
sfc high traverses south of the region during this period, with
temps warming back to above climo, into the 70s and lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Conditions appear to remain on the dry
side with the ridge still in control.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sat/...
As of 715 PM Thu...Coastal low will bring widespread sub-VFR
conditions, rain and gusty winds tonight into Friday. MVFR cigs
are beginning to intrude along the coastal plain this evening in
tandem with axis of heavier precipitation, and these cigs are
expected to drop further to IFR/LIFR by 03z as winds quickly
turn north and a weak inversion develops in a heavily saturated
layer. Easterly winds will become gusty 15-25 kt this evening
then shift N late tonight and Fri morning with gusts to 25-30 kt
possible. Cigs will be slow to improve Fri morning, grad
returning to VFR between 18-21z.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thu...VFR conditions expected with light winds
returning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 230 PM Thu...Mariners are advised to prepare for a period
of extreme winds and dangerous marine conditions which will
begin late tonight and continue Fri. Storm Force to Gale Force
winds and seas in excess of 15 ft are currently expected for
the eastern NC waters. These conditions will be the result of a
rapidly developing surface low over eastern NC late tonight
which will move offshore of the NC coast on Fri. Latest obs
continue to show E winds 10-20 kt gusting 15-20 kt with seas 4-7
ft. These conditions will continue today, then tonight winds
will veer to SE and increase to 20-30 kt after midnight, the
shift to N and increase to 35-45 with gusts to 50 kt toward dawn
Fri as the low moves off of the coast. Seas will build to 6-10
ft tonight, peaking up to 15-20 kt across the central waters
Friday.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Thu...Gusty nwrly winds in the SCA range expected
for Sat, then winds and seas should drop below SCA for Sun into
Mon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM Thu...Coastal Flood Warnings/Advisories and High
Surf Adv in effect for late tonight into Sat. High astronomical
King tides are expected through this weekend. Low pressure is
expected to rapidly intensify off the NC coast Friday morning,
and will lead to potentially dangerous and life-threatening
rapid water level rises on the OBX due to waters from the
Pamlico Sound as easterly winds switch to north and rapidly
intensify. Moderate to locally major oceanside and soundside
coastal flooding (inundation 2-4 ft agl), ocean overwash, beach
erosion and dangerous surf are all likely, with conditions
peaking Friday. Greatest impacts likely along the Outer Banks,
with more minor impacts (1-2 ft agl) along the Crystal Coast.

Minor coastal flooding may continue into the weekend due to the
high astronomical tides.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for NCZ046-047-081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for
     NCZ094-194.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for NCZ195-196-199.
     High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     NCZ196-203>205.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM EST Friday for NCZ196.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 3 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for NCZ203>205.
     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ131-136-137-
     230.
     Storm Warning from 5 AM to 2 PM EST Friday for AMZ135-150-158-
     231.
     Storm Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/MS
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...CQD/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX